Shinjuku
新宿区
TokyoInvestment Index
Significant Decline
Shinjuku remains one of Tokyo's highest-transaction areas. Median condo prices have risen 67% in 3 years — here's what the data shows.
What buyers actually paid vs listing site prices
Listing sites
~¥1,468,444/m²
Actual price
¥1,311,111.11/m²
-11%
* Listing price estimated based on typical asking-to-transaction gaps.
Market Trends
Prices have risen 68% over the displayed period. Check whether current momentum is sustainable.
Median price per m² and transaction volume from MLIT government data. Tap data points for details.
Price vs Building Age
A 40-year-old building trades at roughly half the price of a new one. Building age is one of the biggest price drivers in this area.
Investment Guide by Building Age
Recommendations for foreign investors based on seismic standards, depreciation, and financing.
| Age | Median/m² | Count | Seismic | Tax Life | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10 yrs | ¥2,014,286 | 14 | ✓ Modern | 37–47 yrs remaining | ● Recommended |
| 11–20 yrs | ¥1,760,000 | 8 | ✓ Modern | 27–36 yrs remaining | ● Recommended |
| 21–30 yrs | ¥1,350,000 | 15 | △ Post-1981 | 17–26 yrs remaining | ◐ Caution |
| 31–40 yrs | ¥1,100,000 | 3 | △ Post-1981 | 7–16 yrs remaining | ○ High Risk |
| 40+ yrs | ¥953,571 | 10 | ✗ Pre-1981 | 0–6 yrs remaining | ○ High Risk |
● Recommended = Post-2000 seismic standard, financeable, strong resale · ◐ Caution = Post-1981, verify repair history · ○ High Risk = Pre-1981, limited financing, higher insurance
Market Evidence
Recent transaction samples from MLIT
All transactions from MLIT Q3 2025 release
These are actual sale prices recorded by the government — typically 5-15% below listing site prices.
| Date | Price | Area | Price/㎡ | Built | Station |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | ¥44,000,000 $278,076 | 20.0 m² | ¥2,200,000 $13,904 | 2006 20 years | Nishi-Shinjuku |
| Q3 2025 | ¥150,000,000 $947,987 | 70.0 m² | ¥2,142,857 $13,543 | 2011 15 years | Iidabashi |
| Q3 2025 | ¥150,000,000 $947,987 | 75.0 m² | ¥2,000,000 $12,640 | 2001 25 years | Shinjuku |
| Q3 2025 | ¥17,000,000 $107,439 | 15.0 m² | ¥1,133,333 $7,163 | 1994 32 years | Shinjuku |
| Q3 2025 | ¥38,000,000 $240,157 | 25.0 m² | ¥1,520,000 $9,606 | 2007 19 years | Shinjuku |
| Q3 2025 | ¥18,000,000 $113,758 | 15.0 m² | ¥1,200,000 $7,584 | 1997 29 years | Shinjuku |
| Q3 2025 | ¥51,000,000 $322,316 | 60.0 m² | ¥850,000 $5,372 | 1972 54 years | Shinjuku |
| Q3 2025 | ¥90,000,000 $568,792 | 70.0 m² | ¥1,285,714 $8,126 | 1998 28 years | Takadanobaba |
| Q3 2025 | ¥14,000,000 $88,479 | 30.0 m² | ¥466,667 $2,949 | 1979 47 years | Takadanobaba |
| Q3 2025 | ¥14,000,000 $88,479 | 25.0 m² | ¥560,000 $3,539 | 1979 47 years | Takadanobaba |
* Data sourced from MLIT (Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism) public records. Sample transactions may not represent all market activity.
Who Invests in Shinjuku
Typical Investor
Yield-focused investors, first-time Japan buyers seeking liquid markets
Investment Thesis
Massive tenant pool from business travelers and students. High transaction volume = easy to buy and sell.
Key Risk
Oversupply risk from new development. Older stock faces increasing competition.