Shinjuku

Shinjuku is Tokyo’s highest-volume condo market among the pages on this site, which is the actual reason to look at it. West Shinjuku (Nishi-Shinjuku skyscraper grid, Tokyo Metropolitan Government) is a different product from Kabukicho / Golden Gai, and both are different from the residential pockets in Takadanobaba, Ochiai, and Yotsuya. High transaction counts mean you can usually find a comparable from the last four quarters instead of guessing from a citywide index.

The tenant pool is the broadest in central Tokyo: office workers in the west towers, hospitality and nightlife staff in the east, students along the Seibu-Shinjuku and Tozai lines, and a growing inbound tourist overlay around the station. That breadth supports occupancy. It does not support premium rents — a typical 25–35 m² 1K near Shinjuku-sanchome often yields in the mid-3% to low-4% range, better than Azabu, worse than the inner suburbs.

Two underwriting issues show up repeatedly in the records. First, building-age discounting is steep west of the station, where 1980s–1990s towers compete with new supply. Second, mansion bylaws and Shinjuku-ku lodging rules make tourist minpaku a minority strategy; Kabukicho adjacency does not automatically mean a legal short-stay. Treat “hotel demand” as a rent-comparable, not as an operating plan, unless the building and the ward have already approved it.

Because volume is high, this is one of the few Tokyo pages where a single weak quarter in the chart is usually noise. Look at the three-year slope and the age-band medians. If a listing is 20% above the latest-quarter median with no renovation story, the tape — not the brochure — is the negotiation file.